Bearish impulses dominated the wheat market last week. The latest WASDE report from the USDA came as little surprise with regard to the US balances, but the global production forecast was once again revised significantly upwards. New record figures in Canada and Argentina, better yield expectations in the EU, Russia and Australia as well as an increase in global end-of-season stocks to 274.9 million tons weighed on prices. SRW wheat on the CBoT was able to make up some ground at the end of the week, but remained under pressure over the course of the week. HRW wheat was weaker across the board. The only supportive effects came from the weaker US dollar and solid US export data, which exceeded the upper end of estimates at over 850,000 tons. The ongoing forecast revisions in Argentina caused additional market movement: After the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange increased to 25.5 million tons, the Rosario Grains Exchange set a new benchmark with now 27.7 million tons. On Euronext, wheat prices in Paris were affected by the stronger euro and closed lower overall.
Contrasting signals dominated the maize market. While the global outlook clouded over due to WASDE-related downward corrections, particularly with regard to Ukraine, US production remained unchanged. Strong export demand was the decisive factor: the previous week's corn bookings of 2.38 million tons significantly exceeded expectations, and large individual sales also supported the market. Nevertheless, CBoT prices were only able to recover selectively. The continued high level of production worldwide and the decline in ethanol output in the USA had a negative impact. In Paris, maize prices were mixed and remained flat over the week.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Last week offered little scope for upward movements, particularly in wheat. The global supply situation remains comfortable, which is increasingly reflected in prices. Even the friendly US export figures were only able to change this in the short term. International demand remains a ray of hope for the maize market, although supply will outweigh demand in the medium term. Further developments in South America will be decisive for the direction of prices in the coming weeks. In addition to Argentina, the focus there will be on Brazil, where weather conditions will determine the course of sowing. Overall, the environment remains rather bearish, with short-term bullish reactions to export data.
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