Wheat prices on the US stock exchanges were volatile over the course of the week. A weak start to the week was followed by a recovery in the middle of the week, before renewed losses due to increased Russian harvest estimates and subdued export demand weighed on the market. In particular, Sovecon's forecast to raise the Russian wheat harvest to 87.2 million tons weighed on sentiment. Although doubts about this estimate arose towards the end of the week, they were not enough to initiate a clear trend reversal. The USDA data also showed disappointing US wheat exports, which had an additional negative impact. In Europe, the market remained dominated by price pressure from the Black Sea region. A slight recovery at the end of the week was unable to fully offset the price losses.
The picture in corn trading was mixed. Earlier gains were given up again in the middle of the week before prices stabilized again on Friday. Market participants positioned themselves ahead of the WASDE report, which is expected to show high production and storage figures. The market reacted above all to the prospect of a strong second maize harvest in Brazil and a record harvest in Argentina. Even though a downward revision of US forecasts was expected, overall expectations remained high. The weekly export data from the USA was solid as the new marketing season began. On Euronext, the weak environment continued with slightly declining to stable prices.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Despite slight price gains at the end of the week, the wheat market remains characterized by uncertainty. While Russian record forecasts appear bearish at first glance, the doubts expressed about the plausibility of these figures could have a supporting effect in the coming weeks. On the export side, the market is currently weak, which increases the downside potential in the short term. In the case of maize, the low prices appear to have been priced in for the time being following the new peak forecasts from Brazil and Argentina. The decisive factor will be how strongly the USDA actually sticks to its previous US forecasts. Overall, the fundamental data remains negative, but the high level of uncertainty regarding real harvest volumes and weather patterns is likely to ensure continued volatility.
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