Getreide News, 14/Aug/2025

The grain markets have been clearly dominated by the WASDE report over the past few days. In the case of wheat, expectations of only a slight decline in US production and rising exports initially led to subdued price movements over the course of the week. On Monday, CBoT prices rose slightly before the report led to heavy losses on Tuesday evening. The US harvest forecast was lowered marginally to 45.5 million tons and exports were revised slightly upwards. Although these signals tend to be bullish, the shock in the outlook for maize also depressed sentiment here. Internationally, there was talk of a slightly weaker overall outlook, particularly in China, Argentina and Brazil. Only the EU forecast was revised upwards by 1 million tons. At the same time, the winter wheat harvest in the USA was 90 percent complete, with ratings improving slightly to 49 percent good/excellent. After hitting a five-year low, there was a slight technical recovery in the middle of the week, supported by harvest progress in Russia and speculation about new French exports to Egypt. On Euronext, Paris followed the US lead and fluctuated between €192.75 and €195.75 per tonne.

In corn, the WASDE report triggered a significant downward wave. The USDA surprised with a sharply higher forecast. The harvested area is expected to reach 88.7 million acres (~36 million hectares) and the yield per hectare is expected to increase to 188.8 bushels per acre (12.6 tons/ha). This would set new records and represent the highest production value in history. Higher domestic and export demand cannot fully compensate for the massive increase in supply. Market participants see these figures as a significant negative factor, as even a buoyant export market is unlikely to absorb the additional volumes. Accordingly, CBoT prices fell sharply on Tuesday and Wednesday, in some cases to multi-month lows. Although there was a brief recovery in the middle of the week, accompanied by firmer ethanol production and significantly falling inventories, the fundamental pressure remains high. Internationally, the high US forecasts are also having a dampening effect on prices, even if individual countries such as Serbia and parts of the EU suffered from heat damage. In Paris, the November futures price recently remained at €187.50 per tonne after the initial countermovement quickly lost momentum.