The international wheat market was generally directionless last week. While SRW wheat on the CBoT gained slightly in the meantime, the level remained under pressure as export demand remained subdued and global supply remained high. The USDA's official export figures showed a drop from the previous week at 290,513 tons, and even catching up on older reports did not bring any positive surprises at 315,875 tons. The announcement of additional tenders from Egypt, Algeria and Jordan temporarily supported the mood in Paris, but the extremely competitive price level from Argentina put pressure on European prices again. The stock exchanges in Buenos Aires and Rosario raised their harvest forecasts significantly, citing high rainfall and above-average yields. Initial forecasts for the Russian harvest in 2026 also point to stable conditions, despite expected area reductions. As a result, prices remained volatile with a slight drop at the end of the week on Euronext.
The corn market was dominated by anticipation of the USDA report wave. After the shutdown officially ended, the focus turned to production and ethanol demand in particular. A rally set in at the end of the week after the US export figures of 1.395 million tons exceeded expectations. The assessment of near-record ethanol production in the previous weeks also supported prices, although the latest EIA report did not show any new highs. In Brazil, the Conab confirmed only slight upward adjustments, while in Argentina both the sowing progress and the crop assessments were positive overall. In Paris, maize recently reacted positively after the French Ministry of Agriculture significantly lowered its own harvest forecast due to the summer drought.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The markets continue to be characterized by contradictory impulses. In the case of wheat, the oversupply is clearly in the foreground, particularly due to the increased harvest forecasts from Argentina. Although the tenders in the Mediterranean region could provide short-term support, the price level of the competition can hardly be undercut. The first estimate for the 2026 Russian harvest also points to a stable supply. The USDA report wave is providing new orientation for maize. The strong reaction to the export data shows that the market is sensitive to bullish signals. With the end of the shutdown, a phase of firmer prices, especially for the corn market, could gain the upper hand.
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