The wheat market has undergone a volatile movement this week, which was initially characterized by further price losses. SRW and HRW wheat slipped to new multi-year lows on Monday, partly as a result of robust production forecasts for Russia and Ukraine. Argentina is also expecting a strong wheat harvest, which had an additional negative impact. Euronext was unable to escape the negative environment and also recorded losses. A certain countermovement set in in the middle of the week after the USDA export inspections (which were available despite the shutdown) were slightly above the previous year's level. Speculative impulses also contributed to short-term increases. Nevertheless, the swings remained limited as the global supply situation continues to appear comfortable. Export tenders from Saudi Arabia and Algeria generated interest in certain areas, especially as French suppliers have hardly come into play recently. Towards the end of the week, the focus increasingly shifted to weather forecasts in the US, as the fundamental data failed to materialize. This is still due to the government shutdown. Despite a slight upturn, the market lacked momentum. Overall, the red signs predominated on Euronext.
Political tensions caused unrest in the corn market at the start of the week. Former US President Trump's surprising tariff threat against China led to short-term distortions, although the situation quickly eased. At the same time, the rapid progress of the harvest in the US weighed on share prices. While export inspections were weaker than expected, the overall seasonal volume remained well above the previous year. The markets reacted unevenly in the middle of the week, but were able to make gains towards the end of the week. Reasons included import demand from Taiwan and South Korea as well as concerns about the supply situation in Europe due to a below-average French harvest. Above all, however, the increase in ethanol production caused euphoria. Euronext was more stable on Friday, but remained at a low level overall compared to the previous week.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Despite interim signs of recovery, the fundamental environment for the grain markets remains negative. Global wheat stocks are plentiful, and new highs in Siberia and optimistic harvest prospects in Argentina are increasing the pressure. Even export impulses could only halt this trend for a short time. Robust exports and solid international demand are providing short-term support for maize. However, the further course of the harvest in the USA will be decisive for the price trend. If there are no major weather-related disruptions, the price cap is likely to remain in place. A sustained trend reversal therefore does not appear to be in sight at present.
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