The wheat markets were volatile in the reporting week and reacted strongly to external influences. While SRW and HRW wheat recorded strong gains on the CBoT in the middle of the week, rising harvest estimates from Canada and an increased forecast for the EU harvest by the trade association Coceral exerted pressure towards the end of the week. The USDA's global outlook was also clearly bearish: with wheat production now expected to reach 816.2 million tons and an increase in global ending stocks to 264.1 million tons, the ministry presented a much stronger picture on the supply side. Nevertheless, bullish impulses from Russia supported prices at times. The abrupt increase in Russian export duties acted as a brake on Black Sea exports, which led to a slight recovery in Paris in particular. A strong export week in the USA with over 755,000 tons also provided a tailwind at times. Ultimately, the positive news was not enough to reverse the weakening overall trend.
The corn market was dominated by contradictory impulses. After a bullish start, which was mainly driven by technical buying, fundamental facts once again came to the fore. The USDA had raised its harvest forecast for the USA to 427.1 million tons, which initially slowed the upward price trend. However, reports of below-average harvest yields in initial samples led to renewed price gains in the middle of the week. In addition, export demand remained high: at over 1.2 million tons, US export volumes were significantly higher than in the previous year. However, a proposal by the EPA to redistribute blending quotas for biofuels had a negative impact, causing uncertainty. The European corn trade was largely unaffected by this and was able to strengthen slightly thanks to stable demand
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The grain market remains caught between global supply expansion and regional uncertainties. The Russian export tariffs could give EU wheat a competitive advantage in the medium term, but the recently raised harvest forecasts from Canada and the EU suggest that oversupply will continue. In the case of maize, the uncertainty about actual yields has not yet been dispelled. If the impression that the Wasde report was too optimistic is confirmed, prices could regain ground. The demand component in particular is likely to play a key role here. In the short term, a sideways movement is more likely, although weather-related and political impulses could provide new momentum at any time.
You see historical data because you're not logged in or not a ZMP Live+ member. Get your information advantage now!
