The wheat market started the current week with a strong tailwind. On the CBoT, the March contract rose significantly at the end of the previous week, with the movement mainly driven by the SRW date, while HRW also trended firmer. This was driven by robust US exports, which are clearly up on the previous year, as well as optimistic assessments from France with a high proportion of stocks rated "good/excellent". Wheat was initially more subdued on Euronext. Prices in Chicago fell again in the middle of the week after new, partly higher harvest estimates for Russia from Ikar and SovEcon were circulated and the supply issue returned. EU export figures were also up on the previous year, but without generating any sustained momentum.
Towards the end of the week, the USDA's Ag Outlook Forum provided fresh impetus. The expected US wheat area was seen slightly below the previous year, production was forecast slightly lower, but overall in line with expectations. In combination with declining global inventories according to the IGC, the market turned positive again, with SRW and HRW benefiting equally. On Euronext, the March contract rose noticeably.
Corn was much calmer. A firm start to the week was followed by pressure in the middle of the week due to weaker weekly US export figures and progressing harvest work in Brazil, even if these are behind the previous year. The USDA forecast a smaller acreage for 2026, which provided support, while high global inventories limited supplies according to the IGC. On balance, corn moved sideways with slight swings.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The markets are currently reacting sensitively to new harvest estimates. While Russia is generating pressure with higher forecasts, the somewhat narrower US acreage expectations are providing stabilization. The decisive factor is likely to remain whether the export momentum for wheat is maintained. In the case of maize, the focus is more on South America and the actual US acreage development. In the short term, wheat appears somewhat firmer, while maize could continue to trend in a broad range.
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