Last week ended on a positive note, buoyed by strong US export figures and stable valuations in France, which gave wheat a boost. While SRW and HRW rose in equal measure, the situation remained fragile at the start of the week. This was followed by an abrupt correction at the start of the week, triggered by weak short-term export data and declining state assessments in Kansas, with pressure affecting all qualities. Towards the middle of the week, lower EU production estimates and fluctuating export figures added to the uncertainty, while prices continued to fall. From Wednesday onwards, the mood changed significantly. HRW in particular benefited more from increasing drought risks in the US Plains, while geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices provided additional crucial support. The environment remained volatile towards the end of the week. Disappointing export bookings and higher Russian harvest forecasts had a dampening effect, while weather uncertainties stabilized the market.
Maize initially followed the positive trend, supported by the Brazilian production estimate. However, prices came under significant pressure at the beginning of the week as weaker progress in Brazil and a lack of impetus dominated. The market stabilized in the middle of the week before picking up again from Wednesday onwards in the wake of rising energy prices and geopolitical risks. Towards the end of the week, rising fertilizer prices provided an additional boost, while favourable rainfall prospects in the corn belt limited the rally.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The markets remain heavily influenced by external factors. Energy prices and geopolitical risks are likely to provide further support in the short term. At the same time, solid global inventories and increasing competition in exports argue against sustained price rises. Weather developments in the US growing regions remain a factor. In the case of wheat in particular, the differentiation between qualities could continue. In the case of maize, the development of sowing conditions is likely to be decisive. Overall, volatility is expected to remain high, particularly due to the conflict in Iran.
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