The publication of the latest Wasde report marked the start of the week on the wheat markets and initially caused disillusionment. The significantly upwardly revised global production estimate and an unexpected increase in world ending stocks weighed equally on SRW and HRW wheat. However, prices were able to recover to some extent on the following days. Former US President Trump's statements that China could soon order larger quantities of wheat from the US had a supportive effect, even if there is a lack of reliable export evidence so far. The price trend was also supported by bullish impulses from the soybean market and technical purchases. Nevertheless, disappointing export inspections and high global stocks remained a dampening factor. Towards the end of the week, the focus then fell on US export sales, which reached an annual high of just under 888,000 tons. Despite this bullish signal, bearish influences predominated again: Continued uncertainty about China's actual buying interest pushed prices down again. Euronext also followed this volatile pattern with moderate upward and downward movements, influenced by exchange rate fluctuations, weak export demand and balancing against Black Sea competition.
In the maize market, the week was characterized by bearish signals throughout. Although firm wheat and soybean forecasts led to a slight recovery in the meantime, the disappointment over the Wasde report and the only slightly lowered US yield expectations dominated the picture. Some robust export figures had a stabilizing effect: Weekly export inspections were at a high level, as were the latest sales figures, which reached a new high for the year. Nevertheless, negative influences such as the continuing high level of Brazilian export activity predominated. Euronext moved in a narrow range and also ended the week weaker.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The price trend on the grain exchanges is currently strongly influenced by sentiment and speculation. Hopes of Chinese purchases of wheat in particular could prove to be deceptive if there is no official confirmation in the near future. The rise in world ending stocks remains a negative factor. Although US export sales have recently shown strength, weather-related improvements and competition from the Black Sea region are likely to slow the upward momentum. Despite robust exports, the above-average harvest in Brazil and only slightly lower US yield estimates remain the focus of attention for maize. Overall, both markets are likely to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight tendency towards weakness if there is no further impetus.
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