Wheat prices started the week on a weak note, weighed down by oversupply in the northern hemisphere and the political talks surrounding Ukraine. In Chicago, SRW and HRW prices initially fell to new lows before recovering from the middle of the week. Signs of a competitive US export position and a Syrian tender had a supportive effect. Nevertheless, the international environment remained characterized by rising harvest forecasts: both Ikar and Sovecon raised their estimates for the Russian wheat harvest slightly, which repeatedly put limits on prices. In Paris, prices fluctuated, initially under pressure from the strong euro, then supported by export news from North Africa and finally with a strong jump above 197 euros in the middle of the week.
In maize, the focus was on the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. Initial results indicated very good yields per hectare, which underpinned the high USDA forecasts and put futures under pressure for long stretches. Only local indications of weather-related stress in individual regions caused brief counter-movements. In addition, there was a decline in export inspections, while the weekly US ethanol statistics painted a mixed picture. Towards the end of the week, however, bullish impulses prevailed again: unexpectedly strong export sales for the new harvest led to significant increases in Chicago and corn also rose noticeably in Paris.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The grain markets presented a mixed picture this week. Wheat benefited from export business at times, but remained in the shadow of rising harvest forecasts and the continuing oversupply. The jump in Paris above 197 euros signals that buyers are ready at attractive levels. Corn was initially weighed down by the farm tour results, but strong export sales could herald a bottoming out. If demand continues in the coming weeks, further recoveries are conceivable. Overall, however, the fundamental environment remains rather pressurized, meaning that short-term upward movements could only last for a limited period of time.
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