After a friendly start, the trading week on the wheat market was initially volatile before frost concerns provided a boost towards the end of the week. The international markets were initially supported by two large wheat tenders: Saudi Arabia ordered significantly more than expected, and Algeria also bought far more than advertised. This wave of buying noticeably lifted the mood on Euronext, even if the positive effect was quickly dampened by the strengthening euro. In the USA, the week began with a delay due to the public holiday. While the markets initially reacted unevenly, noticeable losses set in from Wednesday. The smouldering Greenland conflict with its threat of counter-tariffs weighed on sentiment, as did the persistently high global inventories. According to SovEcon, Russian domestic prices fell sharply, indicating sluggish exports. It was not until the end of the week that there was a clear price reversal: an extended cold front with severe frosts fueled concerns about possible frost damage, especially to unprotected winter wheat. Contracts for HRW wheat in particular benefited from this. The weak dollar provided additional support.
The recovery attempt on the maize market was short-lived. Although robust export reports and recently weaker US inventory figures supported the environment, increasing uncertainty surrounding the US bioethanol policy and a sharp upward revision of acreage in Argentina weighed on sentiment. The latest weather forecasts for Brazil were favorable, which further boosted yield expectations. Accordingly, maize prices ended the week slightly higher, but without developing any sustained momentum. On Euronext, maize recently moved sideways.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The latest weather situation is bringing more uncertainty back to the wheat markets. If frost damage does indeed occur in the southern Plains, prices could rise further. At the same time, supply from the Black Sea region remains substantial, even if Russian prices fall. The environment for corn remains difficult: without political support in the ethanol sector, US farmers are facing great supply pressure. The export situation remains positive, but strong competition from South America is likely to limit the scope for major price increases.
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