The international wheat markets were volatile last week - characterized by harvest progress, quality assessments and new export data. In the USA, the rapid progress of the winter wheat harvest initially put pressure on prices. At around 73%, progress was only just below expectations. At the same time, the USDA reported encouraging export figures: Over 730,000 tons went abroad in the previous week - a noticeable increase compared to the previous year. Prices recovered over the course of the week, supported by weaker quality ratings for spring wheat. Only 52 percent of the areas were recently rated as good/excellent - two percentage points less than before. A slight downward revision of the Russian harvest forecast - now at 88 to 90 million tons - also supported the market. Towards the end of the week, new export figures provided further positive impetus: the USA sold 712,000 tons of wheat, significantly more than expected. Nevertheless, the European price level remained under pressure - the advancing harvest and the strong euro are depressing prices.
In contrast, the maize market was dominated by weaker signs overall. Disappointing export inspections at the start of the week already depressed prices - at around 983,000 tons, they were well below the previous week's level. Although the USDA assessment of stocks remained stable at 74% good/excellent, it did not provide any new impetus. The weakness continued towards the middle of the week: ethanol stocks in the USA rose despite a slight drop in production - a sign of weakening demand. Only towards the end of the week did new sales contracts provide some relief: South Korea ordered 130,000 tons of US corn, with further quantities going to unknown buyers. Nevertheless, the European markets in particular were unimpressed - in Paris, August corn fell back just above the 200 euro mark.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The coming period remains dependent on the harvest results and weather conditions. In the case of wheat, new assessments of the yield situation in the USA and Russia could set the tone. Export activity also remains an important factor, particularly with regard to possible international tenders. In the case of maize, the focus remains on the development of stocks in the USA and the mood on the ethanol market. In general, uncertainty is likely to persist - both on the supply and demand side. Major movements are to be expected above all if new trade agreements are reached with the USA.
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