The wheat market had a weak start to the week after significant profit-taking at the end of the previous week. SRW and HRW in particular initially came under pressure, with HRW falling somewhat more sharply. In addition to a firmer US dollar, this was mainly triggered by hopes of an easing of the Iran conflict, which took risk premiums out of prices. At the same time, improved precipitation prospects in the southern Plains had a dampening effect, even if there is still a threat of drought in the long term. Prices stabilized in the middle of the week, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and international tenders, which stimulated demand. Towards the end of the week, prices rose again, with HRW posting above-average gains as the weather risks for the US growing regions once again came into sharper focus. Robust export figures also had a supportive effect. A similar pattern was seen on Euronext, with initial losses and subsequent stabilization, although good earnings prospects in Europe and Russia limited the scope for upward movement.
The maize market initially followed the weak trend in wheat and the fall in crude oil prices at the start of the week. Signs of peace in the Middle East weighed on energy prices and thus also on maize. Later on, stable export data and new demand stimuli led to a countermovement. Additional support came from rising ethanol production and expectations of political decisions on biofuel quotas. Nevertheless, the upward momentum remained limited. The prospect of a possible reduction in US acreage had a supportive effect, while at the same time high exports from Argentina intensified competition. On Euronext, maize largely moved sideways.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The markets remain heavily dependent on external factors, particularly geopolitical developments and energy price dynamics. In the short term, weather risks in the US could continue to support wheat, especially HRW. At the same time, global production prospects are limiting the upside potential. Demand from the energy sector is likely to play a key role for maize. The expected political decisions on biofuels could provide new impetus here. Overall, the sideways movement is likely to remain volatile. Sustainable trends require clearer signals on the supply or demand side.
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