28.
11.25
US prices on the upswing - China speculation provides impetus

Getreide News, 28/Nov/2025

Bullish
  • Speculation about Chinese purchases of US maize
  • Persistent drought worries in Brazil
  • Higher US ethanol production with falling inventories
Bearish
  • Record exports from Russia and aggressive competition from Argentina
  • Optimistic forecasts for the Russian wheat harvest in 2026
  • Firm euro burdens EU exports

The international wheat market remained characterized by changing impulses in the reporting week. In the USA, SRW and HRW wheat developed unevenly: while SRW wheat came under pressure at the beginning of the week, HRW initially showed relative strength before both varieties were able to benefit from optimistic export figures in the middle of the week. The disappointing volume of Saudi US wheat purchases temporarily dampened market sentiment, as did the persistently aggressive price level from Russia and Argentina, which is increasingly weighing on the export business. The optimistic Russian harvest forecast for 2026 of up to 91 million tons also weighed on prices, but was partially offset by chart support and firm guidance from the maize market before the holiday break. Euronext was stable overall, even though the firmer euro limited export opportunities for EU wheat.

The maize market in the USA was bullish. Analysts increasingly questioned the official US harvest forecasts, while speculation also circulated about potentially greater quality problems and possible purchases by China, which is increasingly active on the global market following weather-related yield losses. Support came from robust ethanol figures and hopes of growing demand. In South America, Argentinian stocks are stable, while drought concerns are once again emerging in Brazil. Euronext remained in narrow ranges, with slight increases in the middle of the week, before weak demand and a lack of US impetus depressed prices slightly at the end of the week.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The international grain markets continue to be shaped by external factors. While doubts about the official US harvest estimates are increasingly emerging in the maize market and export momentum is providing a boost, the global outlook for wheat remains depressed for the time being. Strong export competition from Russia and Argentina is putting prices under pressure, although local weather risks and technical chart signals may provide short-term support. On the European side, the strong euro is also dampening competitiveness.

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