The mixed picture of the previous week continued on the US wheat market. SRW and HRW wheat were under pressure for long stretches, with the September contract in Chicago falling slightly in the middle of the week and only making up ground on Friday with a technical recovery. The abundant global inventories, which were underpinned by the recently raised Russian export forecasts and the slightly higher EU harvest estimate, among other things, continued to have a negative impact. Although physical US exports reached a seasonal high of around 1 million tons, weaker new bookings put the effect into perspective. Losses for spring wheat were limited. In Europe, the weakness intensified. Prices on Euronext fell to new contract lows, driven by cheap offers from the Black Sea region and disappointing export figures from the EU, which more than halved compared to the previous year. French soft wheat showed qualitative weaknesses in protein content, which exerted additional pressure.
The maize market initially reacted cautiously to the renewed weak weather conditions in Eastern Europe, where drought is severely restricting production according to the MARS report. A moderate price increase on the CBoT only followed towards the end of the week, supported by the lowering of the EU harvest forecast by around 2.5 million tons. Prior to this, bearish impulses from Brazil and Ukraine had dominated events. High yields and increasing domestic consumption are emerging there. US export figures were robust throughout. Nevertheless, Euronext maize remained under pressure, indicating strong competition on the global market.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Despite isolated bullish impulses - such as the cut in the EU maize forecast - the general mood on the grain market remains tense. Global wheat stocks and the strong export supply, particularly from Russia, continue to exert pressure on prices. Even though US maize exports were solid, European prices remain remarkably sluggish. The coming weeks will show whether the effects of the weather in the EU and the development of spring work in North America can provide new impetus for the markets. The focus is likely to increasingly shift to the quality of harvests and the confirmation of export trends.
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