Strong weather effects and export news characterized the price trend on the wheat market. In the USA, a cold front with record-breaking temperatures initially led to sharp rises in SRW and HRW wheat. Concerns about frost damage in winter wheat stocks, particularly in Nebraska, parts of Kansas and Colorado, led to risk premiums at the beginning of the week. Towards the middle of the week, however, the nervousness eased noticeably after heavy snowfall proved to be a protective factor. In Russia, similar weather conditions had a comparable effect. Nevertheless, the assessment of potential damage remained speculative, as reliable valuations will probably not be available until spring. A weak US dollar had a supporting effect, which improved export opportunities. Export figures were solid overall. Wheat bookings in particular exceeded expectations with a nine-week high, while exports were at the upper end of estimates according to the USDA. Euronext, on the other hand, was under pressure from the strong euro, which hampered exports, despite firm US data.
On the corn market, strong US wheat prices and a weak dollar had a supportive effect, especially in the middle of the week. A key stimulus was the announcement of exceptionally high export bookings of more than 4 million tons. Although prices lost some of these gains in the meantime, the export data at the end of the week confirmed the robust foreign trade at almost 1.7 million tons. In Argentina, weather concerns remained due to drought and heat waves, even though rain has fallen regionally. However, additional pressure was generated by a slightly higher harvest estimate for Brazil.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The international grain markets recently moved under the influence of strong weather effects and dynamic export reports. US winter wheat benefited significantly from short-term frost concerns, even if their long-term effects are still unclear. At the same time, stable export figures are supporting price levels. Brisk export activity from the USA is providing support for maize, although weather-related uncertainties in Argentina persist. Nevertheless, improved prospects in Brazil are having a dampening effect. The price trend in the coming week is likely to depend heavily on how weather forecasts and new export data develop.
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