Wheat prices on the US stock exchanges reacted with a consistently firm trend last week. Both SRW and HRW rose significantly, supported by hopes of progress in the US-Chinese tariff conflict and stable export expectations. Even though the USDA was unable to provide current export figures due to the ongoing government shutdown, the market was expecting volumes of between 350,000 and 600,000 tons. Previously reported exports of 258,543 tons were below the previous week's level, but were viewed differently due to the positive year-on-year comparison. The sowing of US winter wheat is also progressing. According to estimates, 84 percent of the areas had been sown by last week. In Turkey, a downwardly revised harvest estimate provided an additional boost. On Euronext, on the other hand, there were slight losses in the middle of the week, after the market had benefited from the weaker euro at the beginning of the week.
The maize market was also firm. Particularly strong demand from South Korea and good US shipments provided positive impetus. The Brazilian supply company Anec lowered its export forecast slightly, which also had a supportive effect. Although the official US data was not available due to the shutdown, estimates for exports of up to 2.1 million tons were received optimistically on the market. Daily ethanol production also remained at a high level despite a slight decline. In Europe, corn contracts saw a slight setback on Thursday after a friendly start to the week, but were able to gain overall.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The positive trend in wheat and corn reflects cautious market confidence, even if there is a lack of reliable fundamental data in some cases. The prospect of positive signals from the tariff talks with China is providing additional support for US wheat, while export hopes remain intact despite the lack of USDA data. In the case of maize, falling Brazilian export expectations and strong demand from Asia are having a supportive effect. Nevertheless, the market remains susceptible to weather-related volatility and political disruptions. The initial positive signals from the meeting between Xi and Trump are hopeful. If the statements do not turn out to be hot air, the improved relations could boost demand.
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