Grains News, 12th / Apr / 2024

Overall, the grain markets have been volatile this week, but the bottom line has changed little. Corn closed yesterday in Paris at 192 euros, while wheat was at 201.00 euros/t in the front month. The market is primarily focusing on the WASDE. This brought few surprises for wheat. For wheat, the USDA is now expecting a global harvest of 787.36 million tons, around 660,000 tons more than was forecast in March. Global ending stocks have been slightly reduced as consumption has also increased. For Europe, the USDA estimates the last harvest at 134.15 million tons, increasing the harvest volume compared to March. There was a global cut in corn production. Stocks at the end of the season are also likely to be lower. Production forecasts for Argentina have been reduced by 1 million tons, for South Africa by 1.5 million tons, and corn production is also expected to be 1 million tons lower for Mexico. For Europe, however, the USDA increased the harvest quantity by 900,000 tons to 61.0 million tons. In addition to the WASDE figures, traders are primarily looking at the development of stocks for the coming harvest. In Russia, the weather conditions are pleasant and even in the most important growing areas in the USA, it is reported to be warm and dry, but overall the soil moisture is good. In Europe, producers are more skeptical about the stocks. The very wet winter in particular has taken its toll on the stocks. Added to this are the lower harvest expectations in the EU, even though the consulting firm Strategie Grains revised its forecast for the European wheat harvest slightly upwards this week. At the CBoT, the continued low export volumes were also disappointing. For wheat and corn, the analysis estimates tended to be missed this week. On the local spot markets, the situation remains manageable overall. Farmers are hardly selling any goods they have stored in the hope of rising prices. The compound feed industry is also showing little need for short-term batches and many mills are well supplied with bread quality until the summer.