Prices on the grain market have essentially been moving sideways in recent days, albeit with an upward trend. On the Matif, prices for December futures rose from EUR 218 per tonne to just under EUR 223 per tonne over the course of the week. The harvests in the northern hemisphere have largely been harvested. In Europe, yields were disappointing across the board. The latest USDA estimates revised the harvest in the EU downwards by a further 4 million tons. This contrasts with higher yields and forecasts in Ukraine and Australia. In Australia, the harvest is expected to start in November, with expectations significantly higher than the previous year, and stocks are currently very good.
Further developments around the Black Sea remain uncertain. Yield expectations for Russia were recently revised slightly downwards, fueling speculation about better prices at the Black Sea ports. The analyst firm Ikar has revised its forecast for the Russian wheat harvest downwards from 83.8 to 82.2 million tons due to unfavourable weather conditions. Export expectations fell by 500,000 tons to 44 million tons. Recently, however, there have also been increasing reports of problems with the shipment of Ukrainian goods. One ship is said to have been fired upon by Russia. There are also fears in the Kursk region that the fields may not be harvested.
In contrast to wheat, maize forecasts were revised downwards by the WASDE report. Corn prices have recently risen slightly. Ethanol production is running at full speed in the USA, which is providing additional support for prices.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Grain prices recovered from their lows at the end of August. This fall in prices was driven by very high harvest forecasts, which have recently been revised again. Given the current news situation, prices are likely to continue to move sideways with a positive trend.
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