Grains News, 15th / Mar / 2024

The WASDE report only briefly led to more dynamic trading on the grain markets. By the middle of the week, the stock market had calmed down significantly again, which was partly reflected in a sideways movement in the past few days. The May contract on Euronext recorded a loss of 0.75 euros/ton to 194.00 euros/ton. In its latest forecast for grain cultivation area, the German Raiffeisen Association confirmed what many market participants and producers had already suspected. Grain cultivation falls below the limit of 6 million hectares in Germany for the first time. With a forecast cultivated area of 5.9 million hectares, this would be a new, unprecedented low. With an average harvest, the association's experts expect around 41 million tons of grain and 3.9 million tons of rapeseed. There are many reasons for the declining area, the report continued. In addition to the requirement from the European agricultural policy, which shows that domestic producers have to set aside around 4% of their land, the most important thing is the proportion of building land and also of land for renewable energies such as photovoltaics. A further loss of land for agricultural products is expected in the coming years. The Thünen Institute expects that the area used for agriculture will shrink by around three percent in the next 6 years. That's around 600 hectares. Furthermore, the high water saturation of the soil in recent months could have a negative impact on the stocks. Some regions were unable to cultivate their fields in the autumn due to the wet conditions, and some crops also have to be re-sown. Field work and spring fertilization are now running normally again in most regions due to the mild February. It still remains to be seen how much of an impact the wet autumn and winter will actually have on yields. FranceAgriMer reports that the forecast for French soft wheat exports for the current season to countries outside the EU will increase by 100,000 t to 10.15 million t. reduced. The reason for this was, among other things, the declining buying interest from China. On the other side of the Pacific, wheat and corn prices also mostly went into the red. This means that the recovery movement has come to an end for the time being. In addition to the general global price pressure, export data yesterday caused a depressed mood. Export bookings from the new and old harvest totaled 160,000 tonnes, which was well below market participants' expectations. One of the reasons given for the disappointing export business is the low buying interest from the Middle Kingdom. In addition, the cheap offers from the Black Sea region put dealers under pressure. The range for corn also remained within expectations, with exports reaching 1.28 million tonnes.