Grains News, 21st / Jun / 2024

Red: these are the signs on the grain markets this week. Both wheat and maize have lost ground over the week, in some cases significantly. While the front month of September was still trading at 236.75 euros/t last Friday, it was still 226.75 euros/t at the closing bell yesterday, down 10 euros.

Various issues are currently weighing on the grain markets. For example, weather conditions in Russia have increasingly improved and stocks in Ukraine are also benefiting from more favorable weather conditions. Although the cold spell in May will have caused damage, the market has already priced this in. In addition, the beginning barley harvest in southern Russia showed better yields than analysts had expected. This also gives hope for the coming wheat harvest. Russian export prices have recently fallen again and are currently quoted by the consultancy IKAR at USD 234 per tonne, which is USD 8 per tonne lower than a week ago. The German Raiffeisen Association has largely confirmed its previous grain forecast for Germany. There were only significant changes for maize, with production likely to benefit significantly due to the rainy days in May and June. The industry association Coereal has increased its estimate for the grain harvest by 1.5%. The association expects a wheat harvest of 122.6 million tons, which is significantly lower than last year when 126 million tons were harvested from European fields. In particular, lower production in France (- 5 million tons) and Germany (-1 million tons) is contributing to the overall decline in the wheat forecast. Compared to the previous year, Cocereal continues to expect a larger grain maize harvest of 64.7 million tons. Barley, triticale and rye are also likely to be harvested more than in the previous year, according to the association. On the other side of the Atlantic, wheat prices were also under pressure. For Argentina, the local grain exchange is expecting a slightly higher acreage for wheat. Around 2/3 of the targeted area is currently planted, with harvest in Argentina starting in November. In the USA, the rapid wheat harvest is weighing on sentiment. Export demand has also been low recently and a more favorable weather outlook for the Midwest has weighed on both wheat and corn.