Grains News, 24th / May / 2024

Wheat saw an upward trend this week. In Paris on Euronext/Matif, the front month of September closed yesterday at 258.25 euros/tonne. On Friday of last week it was still 246.75 euros/t. In the same period, maize moved northwards by 10 euros/t to a closing price of 223.00 euros/t on Thursday. Wheat also rose on the CBOT, as did maize. Firm trends can also be seen on the cash markets in Germany. Quantities of last year's harvest are hardly being traded. Traders and producers are focusing on the coming harvest. Barley remains in high demand, particularly in the south.

The main reason for this was concern about wheat quality and harvest volumes in Russia. IKAR and Sovecon also revised their forecasts downwards this week and expect production to be well below the 90 million tons mark in some cases. Current rainfall in the southern growing regions is easing expectations slightly. Stocks in Ukraine may also benefit from this. The cold spell two weeks ago also prompted the International Grains Council (IGC) to adjust its production forecast downwards. Compared to the April estimate, the harvest expectation was corrected by 3 million tons to 795 million tons. Consumption was also lowered slightly, but as in the previous year, it exceeds production expectations, resulting in lower final stocks. Consumption of maize is also expected to be higher than production. This would be 1.22 billion tons, while consumption is estimated at 1.225 billion tons. This week, the EU Commission published export figures for the first time since the end of March. At 26.26 million tons, the volume is slightly below that of the previous year. What is striking in the statistics is that China has almost doubled its wheat purchases in Europe compared to 2022/23. Corn imports are also below the previous year's volume. US wheat exports have disappointed again recently, with corn bookings last week at the average of the last four weeks.