On Euronext, wheat contracts were able to escape the pressure from the US stock markets and posted marginal gains. The Federal Agricultural Information Center has published the first preliminary harvest results. The average yield per hectare of grain (excluding grain maize and corn-cob mix) in Germany in 2024 is 65.5 decitonnes. This is a decrease of 3.5% compared to the previous year and 2.6% compared to the average for the years 2018 to 2023. Yields vary greatly between the federal states, from 48.4 decitonnes per hectare in Brandenburg to 74.2 decitonnes per hectare in Schleswig-Holstein. The area under cereal cultivation has also declined. In 2024, around 5.27 million hectares of grain were cultivated, which is 5.7% less than in the previous year and 7.5% less than the average for the years 2018 to 2023.
On the Chicago Stock Exchange, the bulls were unable to assert themselves further after volatile trading yesterday and last week, and wheat futures slipped into the red. In particular, weak export data from the US Department of Agriculture dampened sentiment. By last Thursday, only 158,900 tons of wheat for the 2024/25 season had been ordered, which corresponds to a decline of 60% compared to the four-week average and fell well short of analysts' expectations of 200,000 to 600,000 tons. Physical exports, on the other hand, reached a season high of 710,500 tons.
US corn prices recorded slight losses shortly before the weekend. In addition to the lack of guidance from wheat, the export figures also had a negative impact, as corn orders for the 2024/25 season of 535,100 tons did not meet expectations of 600,000 to 1.3 million tons. Ethanol production in the US fell unexpectedly sharply in the week to September 20 to an average of 994,000 barrels per day, the lowest level in five months according to the EIA report. Inventories fell by 261,000 to 23.52 million barrels. The southward movement was slowed by the report that 115,000 tons were sold to Mexico. Meanwhile, reports from China indicate that the import limit remains unchanged at 7.2 million tons. In addition, higher tariffs are being imposed on imports.
On Euronext, maize prices were unimpressed by the US stock markets and did the same as Euronext wheat, ending trading with moderate gains.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Trading activity on the stock exchanges remains volatile this week. While harvest work is currently in full swing in the EU, the main focus in the US is on the weather. Excessively dry and warm conditions could hinder the further progress of the work. Futures could find a clearer direction with a view to the upcoming WASDE report.
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