BMEL: Preliminary 2024 harvest report with below-average results
The preliminaryharvest report published by the Federal Ministry of Agriculture (BMEL) on 29 Aug. 24 largely confirms the previous harvest estimates. Cereal production (including maize) is estimated at 39.4 million tons, which is -7.2% below the previous year. The main reasons for this are the reduced acreage of -4.7% and yield losses of -2.6%.
The wheat harvest as a whole is classified as just under -13% worse than in the previous year. In this case, the -9.5 % smaller acreage was decisive; yields per hectare were -3.7 % lower.
The rye harvest (-16.7 %) and triticale (-12.6 %) achieved the worst results, mainly due to cultivation.
The entire barley harvest was largely offset by the well above-average summer barley; at -2 %, production was comparatively little down on the previous year.
The other summer cereals also contributed to mitigating the overall result with above-average individual harvests but small market shares.
However, the remaining maize harvests are expected to be +8.8% higher almost exclusively due to the increase in acreage.
On average, German production is just sufficient for domestic consumption. However, there are differences between the individual types of grain: quality wheat for food purposes is rather too little, durum wheat even has to be imported for the most part. Feed barley is more than sufficient, one third of malting barley has to be imported. Only two thirds of maize is sufficient for domestic use.
The EU and world harvests will be updated in the next few days or weeks.
The market prices for wheat are on an upward trend again after a 2-week slump. On the Paris exchange, wheat prices for Sep. 24 delivery are only just below the €200/t mark at €198.5/t, while €213/t is quoted for Dec. 24 delivery. In Chicago, the equivalent of around 180 €/t is being traded for Dec. 24.
Corn prices have also risen: in Paris, the Nov. 24 date is quoted at 196.25 €/t and in the world's largest surplus region, the USA, prices have risen to the equivalent of 140 €/t.
For the spring months of 2025, further price increases above the previous averages are being signaled on the exchanges.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The price decline on the international stock exchanges, which lasted several weeks, has bottomed out and is now showing an upward trend again. The current price pressure in the (post) harvest period is easing and the fundamental supply criteria of this year with continued shortages are becoming increasingly important for pricing.
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