Grains News, 31st / May / 2024

The rally in grain has calmed down considerably this week, with prices for wheat and maize on the Paris stock exchange even falling again slightly over the course of the week to date. The same picture can be seen in Chicago. The closing price for wheat yesterday evening was 258.50 euros/t in the front month of September. Corn closed in Paris at 224.00 euros/t in what is now the most traded August contract.

There are once again several reasons why grain prices have calmed down at a high level. As so often in recent months, the focus is also on Russia. Rainfall has been announced in the south. Stocks in Ukraine are also benefiting from the weather outlook. It remains to be seen whether this will have a lasting effect on the recently reduced harvest forecasts of Russian analysts. The EU Commission has hardly changed its forecast for grain production compared to the last estimate. Wheat production is still expected to reach 120.2 million tons, which is 4% below the previous year's figure and 5.16% below the average of the last five years. By contrast, the maize harvest is likely to be above average. This is forecast at 68.40 million tons, which is 2.69% higher than the average of the last few years. The previous year's result of 62.97 million tons will also be significantly exceeded. At 54.32 million tons, the barley harvest volume is also expected to be well above the 2023/24 result and above the average of the last 5 years. Due to a US holiday on Monday, figures were delayed. US winter wheat stocks are assessed at 48% in good or very good condition. This is 2 percentage points less than a week ago but significantly better than a year ago. Sowing of maize has progressed well despite the bad weather front, exceeding the average harvest progress by 1 percentage point. In addition, 58 percent of the areas have been planted, which corresponds to the average value at this time. The latest US export figures and export shipments were below average, as they have been recently.

The European Union's decision to impose punitive tariffs on Russian grain and oilseeds from July 1 did not cause any lasting price movement. Deliveries from Belarus are also affected. Trading on the local cash markets has calmed down again somewhat. Mills in particular are currently showing little interest in goods from the last harvest. Feed qualities have recently been increasingly offered by the agricultural sector, but the offers are not always sought after.