In the case of US wheat, the bears increasingly prevailed over the course of the day. The signs on the three major US stock exchanges were red. On Thursday, the USDA published its weekly export sales figures. These showed total sales of 443,697 tons of wheat for export in 2024/25, which is above the upper end of the estimates of 400,000 tons and was thus able to slow the losses somewhat. The result represents a three-week high and is almost 62% higher than the result from the same period last year. Japan was the largest buyer with 170,200 tons, followed by Thailand with 63,000 tons. In the meantime, Japan again purchased wheat on the world market, buying a total of 137,048 tons from the usual countries of origin such as Australia and Canada, with 85,703 tons coming specifically from the USA. Saudi Arabia is also active and has tendered a delivery of 295,000 tons of wheat for December and January. In Russia, deteriorating growing conditions have continued to support Russian export prices. On Monday, analysts at Ikar assessed the FOB price for wheat with a protein content of 12.5% and delivery in November at USD 222.00 per tonne, USD 5 higher than in the previous week. Analysts at SovEcon put Russian wheat exports last week at 1.14 million tons, an increase of around 300,000 tons for the week. The red pencil was also applied on Euronext. However, the development of wheat futures was not entirely uniform yesterday. While the front dates remained negative, the middle contracts were able to turn around and ended trading with marginal gains. Meanwhile, the EU Commission lowered its forecast for wheat production in 2024/25 within the community of states from 116.1 to 114.6 million tons. This marks a twelve-year low. End-of-season stocks are now expected to be 800,000 tons lower at 11.7 million tons. The unfavorable growing conditions in large parts of the continent were cited as the cause. According to a report by the EU Commission, soft wheat exports by EU countries since the start of the season in July have so far amounted to 6.14 million tons. The previous season's result was missed by 26 percent. However, the report points out that the data for Italy and France is incomplete. The number one destination was Nigeria, followed by Egypt and Morocco.
In corn futures, US prices took a break from this week's rally. Contracts posted moderate losses with the next maturing contracts leading the decline. Drought is reported for much of the US next week, so farmers are expecting a brisk harvest pace over the next 14 days. The weekly export sales report showed that a total of 1.684 million tons of corn were booked in the week ending Sept. 26. This was above the upper estimates of trade forecasts and represents the highest figure in the first four weeks of the marketing year. The largest buyer was Mexico with 540,800 tons, followed by Colombia with 339,100 tons and Japan, which bought 244,000 tons. Euronext corn was mixed and lacked momentum. While the front month stood still, the back months fell slightly. The EU Commission lowered its forecast for usable maize production in 2024/25 within the EU from 61.6 to 60.1 million tons.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
On the grain markets, the focus is still primarily on the harvest in many regions of the world. In the EU, the maize harvest is in full swing in many regions, with very heterogeneous results in some cases, and the harvest in the US could also pick up speed again significantly with the reported weather. In Russia and Ukraine, on the other hand, growing conditions are currently not optimal and are repeatedly giving the bulls a tailwind. The final harvest results in particular are likely to have an impact on price trends. Globally, a solid harvest is expected despite some adversities.
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