Grains News, 8th / Mar / 2024

Yesterday, Thursday, wheat prices were somewhat firmer again. Looking back on the week, however, a bearish market remains. Both wheat and corn showed red signs on most trading days. The closing price for wheat in the most traded May contract was yesterday at 192.00 euros. Last Thursday the contract was still at 196 euros/t. For corn, the contract was quoted at 174.75 euros/t a week ago on Thursday; yesterday the closing price was 173.00 euros/t. The reasons for the setbacks and the rather pessimistic mood can still be found in export competition on the Black Sea. Ukraine achieved sea export volumes in February that have not been this high since the Russian attack began. Russia's export prices reached a four-year low last week and fell again this week by a significant $12 per ton to $203 fob. Algeria knew how to take advantage of the cheaper purchasing prices on the world market. The country had booked 600,000 tons in a tender. The deliveries come primarily from Russia and Ukraine. This is a particularly large amount even by Algerian standards. Traders were quite surprised that such a large quantity could be purchased at these prices. This once again speaks for the high level of export competition between grain-exporting countries. Europe's wheat exports have recently made up some of the shortfall compared to the previous year. At the same time, European corn exports are significantly below the previous year's level. The better European harvest is clearly noticeable here. US export sales have also been disappointing recently. Traders have recently been increasingly positioning themselves for today's WASDE. However, only a few market participants are expecting major adjustments. On the US corn market, traders at today's WASDE will primarily be looking at South America. The second May sowing is progressing very quickly in Brazil and is now at the target level at 86 percent. At this time last year, 70 percent of the area was cultivated. In Germany and Central Europe, corn growers are hoping for a drier spring. Especially in the north, the fields are far from being passable. However, the forecasts indicate a drier March month. In all regions the soil capacity for absorbing water has been clearly reached, and in some cases it is still exceeded. The compound feed industry currently continues to only sporadically demand wheat, barley and corn. However, given falling price expectations, farmers are more willing to sell than they were a few weeks ago.