Cereals News, 27.02.2025

Wheat prices continued their downward trend on Wednesday and were therefore unable to turn the tide. In Chicago, the highest-selling May date headed south with a loss of 8.00 US cents - at the end of the day, the settlement price stood at 579.75 US cents per bushel. This means that wheat prices have been unable to overturn the bearish mood since last Wednesday. Hard red wheat prices were also weaker in Kansas, while spring wheat futures in Minneapolis failed to break out of the loss zone. Prices came under pressure due to new estimates on the development of stocks. Analysts report that the cold and unfavorable weather in the Midwest has not caused any major frost damage to winter wheat stocks. The existing snow cover was sufficient in most regions. Meanwhile, prolonged rain showers are expected to occur in the east of the country in the coming weeks. However, it was emphasized that only some of the precipitation is expected to reach the cultivation areas of the Plains. The announced US tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico are also weighing on the markets. President Trump has announced that these will come into force on March 4. Investors fear both a decline in US exports and possible counter-tariffs on US agricultural products by the neighboring countries affected. Today, the USDA's latest report on ending stocks for the 2025/26 season is eagerly awaited. On average, market participants expect these to be put at 830 million bushels of wheat. This would be significantly higher than the 794 million bushels in the current season. Cultivation for 2025 is estimated at an average of 46.7 million acres. The bears also took the lead again on Euronext, putting an abrupt end to the recovery. The highest-volume May contract lost €1.75 and closed at €230.00 per tonne, its lowest level in four weeks. Weak overseas data in particular dragged futures into the red. The losses were only curbed by hopes of rising EU export business. In particular, developments in Russia regarding the export quota there are making traders sit up and take notice. This could lead to an increase in exports if the quota is exhausted. Corn futures were also unable to escape the weak sentiment and ended trading in red territory. In Chicago, the most traded May futures contract recorded a loss of 0.75 US cents to the equivalent of 185.49 euros per tonne. As with wheat, the USDA report is eagerly awaited today. Analysts expect corn ending stocks for the 2025/26 season to average 1.91 billion bushels. A volume of 1.54 billion bushels is expected for the 2024/25 season. According to analysts' estimates, cultivation should amount to around 93.6 million acres. Meanwhile, the new EIA report was also published, confirming that US ethanol production remains at a high level. Daily production averaged around 1.081 million barrels last week - a slight decrease of 3,000 barrels compared to the previous week. With an increase of 1.35, inventories amounted to 27.57 million barrels. On Euronext, corn prices were unimpressed and found no clear direction. The June contract rose marginally by 0.25 to 220.00 €/t.