Grain prices back on stabilization course
Global level: Grain prices are currently reacting very sensitively to any change in information on the global supply situation with sharp price fluctuations. The latest USDA publication (Fri, July 12) with increased wheat harvests compared to the previous month's estimate caused the stock market prices for wheat to fall from € 225 to € 215/t on the Paris stock exchange, reinforced by the usual weekend caution effect; this was preceded by a corresponding fall on the Chicago stock exchange. However, in the current week (19.07), a stabilizing countermovement can already be seen, which is mainly caused by a recovery in demand, supply restraint and faltering Russian exports.
In the USA, the wheat harvest has largely been completed with the exception of 4 northern states. At 54 million tons, the result is significantly better than in recent years with harvests below the 50 million ton mark. In Canada, too, the wheat harvest is expected to be above average compared to some weak previous years.
In Russia, wheat harvests are progressing further north and east to more critical production locations, while the fields in the southern districts have already been largely cleared. The published harvest estimates still vary, but at more than -10% they remain significantly below the previous year's level. This means that the world's largest wheat exporter will have to limit exports.
Corn prices, on the other hand, are comparatively stable with a trend towards rising prices. The background to this is a little changed assessment of a persistently tight global supply situation, which remains below the previous year's result despite recent corrections. At 25.5%, the supply figure is below previous values.
EU-27: In the EU member states, the barley harvest is largely in the final stages. Earlier expectations of a high yield have not been confirmed in all production areas. Despite a larger area under cultivation, the total production of around 52 million tons remains below the multi-year average due to low yields per hectare. The EU wheat harvest is estimated at 130 million tons (previous years 135 million tons). Maize is expected to yield an average of 64 million tons.
In France, FranceAgriMer reports a far below-average wheat harvest of 29 million tons compared to an average of 35 million tons in previous years. The total harvest of 58 million tons is also estimated to be below previous averages of 65 million tons and more.
The latest DRV estimate for Germany assumes a total harvest of only 41.5 million tons or -2.7 less than in the previous year. The winter crops of barley and wheat are particularly weak with -6% and -8% less production respectively.
Grains-Update,
Grain markets under pressure
European harvests influence prices In France and other European countries, the volatile weather has set grain markets in motion. Thunderstorms and periods of rain have affected the harvest, leading to fears about the quality of the 2024-25 wheat crop. This concern is reflected in the stable prices on Euronext, although export competition from Western Europe is weak. While maize in France is benefiting from rainfall, other regions such as the Balkans and the Black Sea region are suffering from drought and heatwaves. These contrasting conditions influence maize prices and create complex dynamics on the international markets. Current developments show the dependence of the agricultural sector on weather phenomena and underline the importance of accurate data and information for farmers, traders and investors. Monitoring global grain markets remains critical to making informed decisions in this volatile environment.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The rather tight supply situation on the global grain market is keeping prices at an above-average level compared to multi-year averages. However, the market is currently in a sensitive phase because the decisive harvests in the northern hemisphere are always exposed to weather-related risks. Depending on the harvest prospects, prices react very volatile. At present, the signals point to a more stable development at a reduced level.
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