Price development within a narrower range with slight upward tendencies
Global level: Despite daily fluctuations with only rare large swings, international exchange prices have been moving within a narrower range of € 215 to € 230/t of wheat for almost a month. In the case of maize, prices are even rising steadily to a level of 220 €/t. The background to this is the growing assessment that the global supply situation will continue to become tighter, particularly in the maize sector. The export potential of the leading exporting countries is falling by just under 4% on average, with the Russian and Ukrainian cuts in the double-digit range and EU deliveries being particularly noticeable.
USA: With the exception of a few northern locations with predominantly spring wheat cultivation, the US wheat harvest has been successful. The preliminary result is estimated at an above-average 54 million tons (previous years only just under 50 million tons). In Canada, too, despite the current heatwave with huge forest fires, favorable harvest results are expected for wheat (+12%). Barley, on the other hand, is expected to fall by 9 %.
In Russia, high temperatures in the still harvested areas of the northern and parts of the Volga and Siberian districts are causing premature ripening, resulting in yield losses. Compared to the previous month, the wheat harvest is estimated to have fallen by a further -1% to just 83 million tons (previous year: 91.5 million tons); in the case of winter barley, the harvest has been reduced to 18.5 million tons or - 9% compared to the previous year. Faltering export sales have led to rising export prices again.
In Ukraine, the wheat harvest is expected to fall by -26% to just 19.5 million tons. In the case of barley, a drop of as much as -37% is expected. Estimates for the maize harvest are also -17% below the previous year's level.
The wheat estimate for the EU-27 remains at just under 130 million tons or -3% compared to the previous year. The barley harvest is estimated unchanged at just under 53 million tons. In particular, the weak wheat harvest in France, the EU's largest wheat-growing region, is contributing significantly to the reduced grain production.
Based on climate data, the EU Commission's agrometeorological institute (MARS ) has calculated average yields per hectare for cereals to be -2% lower than in the previous month. The unfavorable weather conditions led to lower yields in France (-8%), the Netherlands (-7%), Belgium (-3%), Austria (-4%), the Czech Republic (-4%) and Italy (-4%) compared to the previous year. After weak to disastrous previous years, good average harvests are forecast again on the Iberian Peninsula and in some south-eastern European EU countries.
For Germany, yield reductions of between -1% for wheat and up to -5% for winter barley are estimated. Rye and triticale harvests are expected to be slightly higher year-on-year.
Average producer prices for wheat in Germany
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Following the previous strong price fluctuations in the preceding months, a narrower range of wheat price developments between € 215 and € 230/t emerged in the course of July 2024. In particular, the export potential of the leading exporting countries is declining considerably. In the case of the narrower maize market, a significant price increase can even be seen.
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