Wheat is under pressure after Easter. While trading in Chicago was already back on Easter Monday, trading in Paris only started yesterday, Tuesday. Wheat started the new trading week weaker. Yesterday's closing price for the front month of May was 201.75 euros per ton. Corn also closed lower. Here, the closing price was 192.75 euros/t at the closing bell. Today, Wednesday, however, there are firmer price trends for wheat and especially for corn. The bulls were helped by the recent deterioration in the condition assessments in France. The French agricultural authority downgraded wheat stocks again slightly last week. Market participants in Germany, especially in the north, are also concerned about the development of wheat stocks. The outlook for Russia and the USA is different. There, conditions are good. In Russia in particular, the weather conditions are positive for further crop development. Sovevon increased its forecast for the coming wheat harvest to 94 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons. Sovecon is also optimistic about exports. These have gained momentum and a record figure of 4.3 million tonnes is expected for March. In the USA, export figures continue to be well below those of the previous year, and Europe has also recently shown weaker demand. Over the current financial year, around 800,000 tonnes less wheat has been exported to third countries. What is putting pressure on wheat prices, however, are the higher harvest forecasts from the EU Commission. Last week, the EU Commission estimated the 2024/25 grain harvest at 281.226 million tonnes, 3.4 percent higher than last year. According to the Commission's estimates, the soft wheat harvest will be significantly lower at 121.7 million tonnes (previous year: 126.6 million tonnes). Drum wheat is also likely to be harvested less. On the other hand, the corn and barley harvests are estimated to be significantly higher. Market activity on the local spot markets remains calm. Bread wheat in particular is currently being traded very little. Since many market participants are still on holiday this week, overall, quiet trading is expected until the weekend.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The upward movement before Easter no longer continues this week. Prices are under pressure. The forecasts for Europe are weaker and significantly lower than last year. But in Russia in particular there are very good conditions for the coming harvest.
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