Grains News, 5th / Apr / 2024

In the shortened trading week after Easter, wheat and corn headed south again. The upward trend of the last week could not continue. While the front month of May 24 was still quoted at 203.50 euros/t on Maundy Thursday, it was 200 euros per tonne by the closing bell yesterday evening. Corn closed at 190.50 euros/t. The CBoT showed volatile trading in grain, but until yesterday corn and wheat had only fallen slightly. The domestic spot markets are showing low turnover, which is also due to the holidays. However, the current volatility on the stock exchanges is also causing producers and traders to be cautious about buying and selling. With a view to the upcoming European harvest, the worries are certainly growing. At the end of last week, the EU Commission forecast the upcoming soft wheat harvest at 121.7 million tonnes. This would be 4.79% below the long-term average of 127.8 million tonnes. The previous year's result of 126.609 million tonnes was also noticeably missed. The lower harvest forecast is due, among other things, to a smaller area under cultivation; caution is also advised with regard to yields due to winter conditions. The corn area, on the other hand, is likely to increase. With a forecast corn harvest of 69.28 million tonnes, both the previous year's result of 62.54 million tonnes and the long-term average of 66.89 million tonnes will be exceeded. France's agricultural authority FranceAgriMer recently saw the quality ratings of winter wheat stocks at one of the lowest levels in recent years, with 66 percent "good to very good". Expectations are different in the USA and Russia. This week, the consulting firm Sovecon increased its forecast for the Russian harvest to 94 million tonnes, an increase of 0.5 million tonnes. The weather conditions in winter were good and the current vegetation conditions are also favorable for winter sowing. In the USA, the area under cultivation for wheat was recently estimated at 19.2 million hectares, around 0.8 million hectares less than last year. However, conditions here have recently been friendly. On Easter Monday, the USDA's crop report classified 56 percent of winter wheat crops in the "good" and "excellent" categories. A year ago, at this time, the figure was only 28 percent. Corn cultivation in the USA is likely to be significantly higher than in 2023. The USDA expects a cultivation area of 36.4 million hectares, which is 1.9 million hectares more than last year. At the same time, the corn harvest in Brazil and the second corn sowing are in full swing and are causing corresponding export competition. Traders were accordingly unimpressed by the latest sales figures yesterday. As has become known, China plans to focus on its own corn cultivation and thus become more independent of imports. Current media reports that Russia has recently repeatedly stopped ships to take quality samples are causing a stir. Recently, there has been clear criticism from importing nations regarding the quality of Russian grain deliveries.