Grain prices on Euronext/Matif were mixed. While there were slight gains at the beginning of the week, prices stagnated towards the middle of the week. However, the bullish impetus from the US stock markets ensured that futures closed trading on Wednesday with gains. After this series of gains, futures slipped back into the red yesterday. The lower harvest volumes in Europe, particularly in Germany and France, are increasingly coming into focus.
According to current estimates by the EU Commission, the export potential has fallen from 32 million tons to 26 million tons due to the smaller harvest, compared to 35.1 million tons in the previous year. According to Destatis, Germany exported a total of 11.78 million tons of grain from July 2023 to June 2024. In the same period, 10.77 million tons of grain (including wheat, corn, barley and other varieties) were imported, resulting in an export surplus of 1 million tons. Wheat exports amounted to 7.42 million tons, while imports amounted to 6.04 million tons. The surplus was even more pronounced for barley, where 3.49 million tons were exported and only 1.63 million tons imported. In contrast, Germany recorded a significant deficit for grain maize, as only 404,000 tons were exported and 2.94 million tons were imported.
Problematic weather conditions are being reported in parts of Russia, which is why the forecast for the wheat harvest has been lowered from 83.3 million tons to 82.5 million tons. However, this contrasts with good harvests in Canada, the USA and Australia.
Wheat futures on the US stock exchanges saw mixed trading on Thursday, with some contracts recovering from initial weaknesses over the course of the day. On the CBoT, the front month fell by 6.00 US cents and closed at 574.75 US cents per bushel, equivalent to 190.04 euros per tonne. Bearish impulses were provided in particular by the liquidation of positions by funds, which closed out their contracts in large numbers.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The grain markets are currently showing a mixed picture. On the one hand, bullish factors such as stable prices in the Black Sea region and lower harvest volumes in Europe are supporting the markets. On the other hand, bearish developments such as falling exports from the EU, good harvests in key growing countries such as the USA, Canada and Australia and sales by large funds on the US stock exchanges are weighing on price trends. Overall, the situation remains volatile, with global supply and harvest forecasts being decisive factors for further price trends.
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