Maize stocks are in line with the 10-year average
Corn crops in the US Corn Belt are suffering from insufficient precipitation. Compared to the previous year, however, the weather situation is less dramatic, as temperatures below 30 degrees Celsius are less severe for the plants than in 2012 under "hot and dry" conditions.
Nevertheless, the weekly field assessment - organized by the US Museum of Agriculture - has downgraded corn stocks significantly after months of above-average ratings and they are currently only reaching the 10-year average values. The prospect of a one-off record harvest is losing more and more of its substance. Estimates still put the harvest at just under 350 million tons, a considerable increase on the previous year's 275 million tons.
Following a sharp fall in July 2013, share prices regained ground in mid-August after it became clear that the euphorically high harvest expectations of earlier months were not justified. The latest restrictions on stock assessments already take into account the fact that the first maize stocks in the southern US states have already reached a high level of maturity and the risk of major damage is becoming increasingly low.
Metereologists do not expect any early frosts until mid-September 2013, which means that the risk premium for this potential threat is also decreasing.
As a result, despite suboptimal weather conditions, maize prices on the stock exchanges are not developing any major upward momentum, but are hovering at a marker line of around 500 US cents per bushel (approx. € 15 per dt). However, the market situation is still fraught with tension, meaning that price fluctuations due to weather conditions must be expected at all times.
The result of the US maize harvest is of global significance, as it accounts for around 50% of the increase in the 2013/14 harvest and is still largely unharvested compared to the other cereals in the northern hemisphere.
