Cereals market trend

Wheat / Wheat

Fundamental facts

• USDA: For 2025/26 US wheat: supply side increases → supply increases, ending stocks increased. USDA: Global wheat supply estimated at 1,090.3 million tons, ending stocks at 271.4 million tons (increase compared to previous month)

• IGC: Global wheat harvest 2025/26 increased to approx. 830 million tons (+31 million tons compared to previous year).

• EU/Germany region: Not all detailed figures published, but higher global harvest and competition from exporters such as Russia/Ukraine are a burden.

• Russia/Ukraine region: While Russia expects good production, the export situation in Ukraine continues to be relevant for EU market impulses due to conflicts/weather risks.

Trend assessment

Wheat: Due to growing supply and higher stocks, the fundamental trend is slightly falling to stable. The EU market is under pressure from global oversupply; however, a supply restriction in Ukraine could have a supportive effect in the short term.

2-4-week forecast

• In the next 2-4 weeks we expect a slight downward movement or sideways trend. As long as there is no major disruption in the Black Sea region, oversupply is likely to dominate.

Bullish / Bearish points

Bullish

• Possible export or production problems in the Ukraine/Black Sea region could support the EU market.

• Higher demand (e.g. food or feed) could stabilize prices in the short term.

Bearish

• Global increases in harvests and stocks depress price potential.

• Competitive supply, particularly from the USA and Russia, increases export pressure on the EU.

Maize / Corn / Maize

Fundamental facts

• USDA: US corn for 2025/26: supply increased (beginning stocks + production revision), ending stocks rise to approx. 2.2 billion bushels. USDA: Production increased globally (e.g. IGC sees 1,576 million tons for coarse grain).

• EU/Germany: EU maize production slightly lower at IGC, EU → approx. 56.4 million tons (-5 % y/y) in the scenario.

• Russia/Ukraine region: Ukraine maize harvest estimated at approx. 31.5 million tons (+17 % y/y) in 2025/26.

Trend assessment

Corn: Fundamental data show a slight downward trend - high supply, large ending stocks, moderate growth in demand. Additional competitive pressure in the EU due to strong Ukraine forecast.

2-4-week forecast

• We expect a sideways to slightly declining trend for the next 2-4 weeks. Without surprising demand or production slumps, downside risk remains.

Bullish/Bearish

Bullish

• Weather problems or logistical failures in export regions could limit supply in the short term.

• Strong export demand, especially from third countries, could provide support.

Bearish

• Very high global inventories reduce price expectations.

• Strong competition from Ukraine and the USA reduces margins in EU trade.

Crude oil market data analysis & forecasts

Current situation

• Price level: Brent is currently trading at around USD 63-64/bbl; e.g. USD 63.19/bbl on 28.11.2025. This is around -1.8 % month-on-month and around -12-13 % below the previous year - i.e. a moderately weaker market.

• US inventories: US crude oil inventories (excl. SPR) stand at 426.9 million barrels as at 21.11.2025, slightly +0.7 % WoW, but still around 4 % below the 5-year average. Total oil products (incl. gasoline, distillates, etc.) at 1.682 billion barrels.

• Foundation: Oversupply looming: The IEA forecast sees a global oversupply of a good 4 million barrels/day in 2026; oil inventories have already risen to almost 8 billion barrels.

• OPEC+: OPEC+ decided on 30.11.2025 to keep current production volumes constant until the end of 2026; the existing cuts of around 3% of global demand (3.24 million bpd) will remain, but there will be no additional cuts for the time being.

Short-term trend:

• Prices: slightly falling to sideways.

• Stocks: slightly rising.

Summary

The latest reports from the USDA and IGC show a comfortable supply situation for wheat and corn overall - with corresponding price pressure. The Black Sea region (Ukraine/Russia) remains an important signal for the EU market: any supply restrictions there can provide short-term support. Nevertheless, sufficient global stocks and supply currently dominate.