Wheat
Trend: Globally and in the EU still stable to slightly declining
Key data points:
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December WASDE lifts global wheat production again: higher harvests in Canada, Argentina, the EU, Australia and Russia, among others.
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Global ending stocks rise accordingly - supply remains ample.
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There was no change in the wheat balance sheet for the USA in December.
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Export demand from the US remains robust: export inspections and export commitments are above last year, which is supportive.
2-4 week outlook:
Wheat prices are likely to trend in a sideways to slightly downward range. Without external supply or demand shocks (e.g. weather-related or geopolitical), the fundamentals remain stable due to high global supply.
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Bullish: Solid export demand from the US including strong inspection data; uncertainties from the Black Sea region could potentially generate geopolitical risk premiums.
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Bearish: High global production and growing stocks - strong supply overhang; pressure from large harvests in Canada, Argentina, Russia, EU, etc.
Corn
Trend: Slight decline
Key data points:
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In the December WASDE, US corn exports increased significantly while US ending stocks were reduced - most recently to around 2.029 billion bushels.
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The latest IGC report signals record global grain production, including corn. Global supply is thus increasing noticeably.
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At the same time, global competition from South American and Black Sea regions remains strong - putting pressure on export prices.
2-4-week outlook / forecast:
Corn should tend to weaken or consolidate sideways. A restrictive price increase is hardly to be expected in the short term - the market environment remains characterized by high supply pressure.
Bullish / bearish signals:
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Bullish: High export momentum from the US, strong inspection and sales data could provide short-term support.
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Bearish: Global oversupply, strong competitive pressure from South America and the Black Sea region; reduced US ending stocks are not sufficient for sustained price pressure in the medium term.
Regional / EU & Black Sea references
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Increased global production also includes important export countries - including the EU, Russia, Australia, Canada and Argentina. This creates strong competitive pressure on the EU market.
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The Black Sea region (in particular Russia, Ukraine) remains an uncertainty factor - export expectations on the part of Russia are rising, which is creating additional price and competitive pressure on the EU market.
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For Germany/EU, this means that despite solid domestic harvests, price pressure is likely to remain high if Black Sea and northern/southern hemisphere supplies are significant.
Overall conclusion
With the December-2025 WASDE and the current IGC Grain Market Report, the global supply of cereals and large grains (including maize) as well as oilseeds remains very high. For wheat and maize, everything points to an environment with stable to slightly falling prices - high competitive pressure and growing stocks remain dominant. Rapeseed shows relative stability with slightly positive trends, depending on the demand for vegetable oils. Market participants in the EU and Germany should expect that price rallies are unlikely in the short term - positioning is more defensive.
