COCERAL estimate: EU grain harvest 2013/14

The umbrella organization of European grain and animal feed traders (COCERAL) has significantly increased the expected result in its harvest forecast, which is published every three months. Although the EU's grain area is expected to be around 500,000 ha lower at 57 million ha, average yields are estimated to be 0.6 dt/ha higher at just under 55 dt/ha. Compared to the previous year, the EU-27 harvest is expected to increase from 273.8 to 292 million tons.

Following the previous year's poor harvest due to drought, high growth is forecast for Spain at +6 million tons or +38%. In the new 12 Central and Eastern European member states, the increase estimates add up to around +12.5 million tons or 16.5 %, with a focus on Romania with +5 million tons, mainly due to a larger maize harvest. The high growth rates are also a consequence of the previous year's weak results.

For Germany, a slightly higher grain volume of just over 45 million tons is still expected. Flood damage will be more than offset by favorable yield prospects at other locations. An average yield of around 70 dt/ha is expected to be achieved on the 6.46 million hectares of cereal land in Germany.

The EU wheat harvest is estimated to be 6 million tons or 4.5 % higher, but the barley harvest only 2 million tons or 3.7 % higher. The decisive increase in yield is expected to come from maize, which is expected to be 9 million tons or almost 16% better than in the highly disappointing previous year. With the exception of spring barley, slightly higher harvests are also expected for all other cereals.

Estimated results for the EU grain harvest 2013/14

On the use side, COCERAL estimates a total consumption of just under 273 million tons, only 1 million tons more than in the previous year. The additional grain consumption is allocated in full to the bioethanol sector. No change is assumed for animal feed, human consumption and other industrial consumption. Import volumes are reduced by 4.5 million tons and exports by around 3 million tons. COCERAL arrives at an increase in stocks of around 9 million tons at the end of 2013/14, resulting in a supply coefficient of 12.8% compared to the previous year of 9.5% final stocks to consumption, which is better than at the end of the previous year, but still not quite average.

Conclusion: The estimation results of various institutions are comparatively close to each other for the EU. The unanimous result is that the supply situation in the coming 2013/14 grain year will be better than in the previous one, but the final result will only be close to average. Stock replenishments and the external balance will largely consume the increase in harvests. Internationally, grain prices rise again. The Paris stock exchange follows suit. The Nov-13 wheat prices have reached the 200 orientation mark again.

That leaves the porcelain box!