COCERAL estimate from Oct. 4, 2013: EU-28 harvest 2013/14 over 300 million tons.
The umbrella organization of European grain, oilseed and animal feed traders (COCERAL) has estimated the EU harvest at around 303 million tonnes (previous year: 275 million tonnes). Three months ago, the last estimate was considerably lower. The strong growth compared to the previous year is due to Spain with an increase of around +10 million tons, Romania with around +6.5 million tons and Germany with just under +3 million tons. However, these countries had considerable drought problems in the previous year.
France, the country with the largest EU harvest, did not exceed 67 million tons. The UK's ordering difficulties last autumn did not have as serious an impact as initially feared; the 20 million t mark was slightly exceeded.
The good harvest result is mainly due to the increase in yield from 48.3 to 53.1 dt/ha on a slightly increased acreage of 57.1 million hectares. The EU wheat harvest increased by around 10 million tons to around 143 million tons compared to the weak previous year. The increase in other cereals was even stronger, with K-maize accounting for the largest share. The countries of south-eastern Europe made up considerable ground here compared to the miserable previous year. In Germany, the K. maize harvest is likely to be weaker.
The figures for the EU supply balance were published by the EU Commission at the end of Sept-13. With comparable starting data to the COCERAL estimate, the EU's final stocks will increase again by 12 million tons to almost 40 million tons. With over 14% of final stocks in relation to consumption, the EU is once again in the upper midfield of a favorable supply situation.
However, price formation is taking place in international trade. The current sharp rise in wheat prices has also had an impact on the EU market. However, the sharp rise in the euro exchange rate to over 1.35 $/€ is weakening the EU's competitiveness in wheat exports. On the other hand, quality wheat is highly valued worldwide because the other exporting countries are experiencing considerable supply difficulties.
On the other hand, EU maize imports benefit from the strong euro and the very low prices in the USA, which are the equivalent of €13 per tonne. If overseas transportation costs, handling fees and land freight are added, surcharges of around €2.5 to €5 per dt must be taken into account. This dampens excessively high price increases in the animal feed sector.
