COCERAL ventures an initial preview of the 2025 EU harvest
As usual, the umbrella organization of European grain and oilseed traders (COCERAL) published an initial preview of the 2025 grain harvest at the end of December 2024. The results are based primarily on the known acreage for winter crops and the remaining acreage for summer crops. The yields per hectare were derived from the multi-year development of area yields. As is usual in such cases, no unusual events are assumed. Accordingly, the results provide an initial rough guide.
The total EU grain harvest in 2025 is estimated at around 275 million tons, which is only just in line with the multi-year average. The higher result compared to the previous year is due to a 2.5 % increase in acreage and +3.4 % higher assumed average yields.
There are considerable differences between the individual EU member states due to different starting situations:
The largest production increase of +14.4 % is expected for France. However, the year 2024 was catastrophically bad. The forecast growth in 2025 only partially compensates for the decline in the previous year; the multi-year average result will also not be achieved.
In Germany, the 2nd largest production region, the grain harvest is forecast to increase by 6.3 %. An increase in acreage of +3 % and a yield increase of +3.4 %, mainly in wheat, will contribute significantly to this.
In the weather-critical growing regions of Romania and Hungary, yields are again expected to be close to average after the two weak previous years, despite increases of +7 % to +10 %. Experience shows that there are still considerable risks to yields up to the harvest date.
After the setbacks, average harvests are expected again in the many small producing countries, which are expected to be +13 % higher than the weak previous year.
In contrast, the comparative forecast for Spain and Portugal is negative at -12 % compared to the very good previous year, with the result remaining at the lower end of the multi-year averages.
Little change in production volumes is expected for Italy and Poland.
Based on the initial situation at the end of the 2024/25 marketing year, it can be assumed for the time being that the new harvest will not bring about a fundamental improvement in the supply situation . This assessment will have an impact on further price trends. Although the forward prices for Sep.25 are slightly lower than the current prices, the price level on the exchanges is in the region of € 220/t of wheat.
