COCERAL increases EU harvest estimate 2025

COCERAL corrects EU harvest estimate for 2025 upwards

In June, the umbrella organization of European grain and oilseed traders raised its quarterly estimate of the EU grain harvest in 2025 to a total of around 279 million tonnes compared to the March 25 issue. In spring 2025, the forecast was still around 274.5 million tons. In the previous year, the harvest was only 259 million tons.

The basis for this year's improvement is initially a slight increase in acreage (+0.8%), but the decisive factor is an increase in yield expectations from 52 to 56 dt/ha.

The decisive factor is the EU wheat harvest totaling 138 million tonnes, which accounts for almost 50% of EU production. The previous year's result was only 122 million tons. The year-on-year increases are largely due to the more favorable harvest prospects in France (+7 million tons) and Germany (+2 million tons).

The barley harvest in the EU-27 is estimated at 52.5 million tons (previous year: 50 million tons), mainly as a result of higher yields per hectare of 52 dt/ha.

Coceral estimates the maize harvest at 60.5 million tons, only slightly higher than in the previous year. A decline in the area under cultivation will be offset by slight increases in yields.

For the remaining cereals (rye, triticale, oats), with a total of around 28 million tons, the increases remain manageable.

The results vary in the individual EU member states. France (+14.1 %), Romania (+15.6 %) and Spain recorded above-average growth rates; however, the previous year's results were very weak. Only Poland is expected to see weaker grain production of -1% compared to the previous year.

Overall, the EU grain harvest in 2020/26 is expected to be at a multi-year average level. Previous results of between 280 and over 300 million tons are a thing of the past. However, domestic consumption has also fallen significantly due to reduced livestock numbers.

Recent estimates in comparison