US seed status as of July 15, 2013 (Crop Progress)
US grain production has entered its decisive yield phase until the middle/end of August. Particular attention must therefore be paid to monitoring seed levels. The price formation on the stock exchanges during this phase is a direct reflection of favorable or less favorable crop development.
According to the weekly report, more than two thirds of winter wheat has already been harvested. However, some north-western US states are still lagging behind. The harvest result was weak as expected. This was due to the drought during sowing last fall and additional winter damage. Compared to a normal harvest, there is a shortfall of around 10 million tons or around 20 %. Compared to the weak previous year, this is only 10 %. The USA exports around half of its wheat.
70% of the spring wheat crop is rated as "good to excellent", even if it is a few weeks behind in its development.
Around 67% of US maize stocks are rated as "good to excellent". However, the development status is 14 days to 3 weeks behind the multi-year average. The pollination phase will take a little longer this year because the temperatures are rather cool.
This is a concern for farmers in the northern parts, as they always have to worry that early frosts could interrupt the later ripening of the maize grains. With an expected 350 million tons out of a total harvest of 430 million tons, maize holds the decisive share of production.
The expected record harvest is putting strong pressure on maize prices on the back dates and could possibly also drag down the stable wheat prices. The weather outlook is rather mixed. In the Midwest, some areas are still threatened by drought. In the remaining areas, forecasters are predicting some small amounts of precipitation with moderate temperatures. Overall, there is a growing conviction that last year's drought disaster will not be repeated.
But the decisive yield formation phase has not yet begun.
