Some of Russia's grain-growing regions are affected by drought. The Tartastan region has been hit the hardest. However, the Volga district - one of the centers of Russian wheat cultivation with a strong export orientation - is also experiencing unusually high temperatures of over 30 degrees with correspondingly high evaporation rates.
In the provinces further south, sufficient precipitation has fallen so that the soil moisture is sufficiently high. Conditions are more difficult in the north-western Old Russian region, as can be seen from the relevant precipitation maps.
A Russian record harvest of over 100 million tons is not to be expected. Even the officially propagated 95 million tons seem to be barely within reach. Experts in Russian agriculture are more likely to assume 92 million tons if all goes well.
The Ukrainian transit ban on Russian grain only affects a small quantity of around 25,000 tons. The reason for the transit ban is the fear that the foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) pathogens could be spread from the contaminated Russian regions during overland transportation across Ukrainian territory. However, no noticeable market disruption is to be expected.
This year, Russia and Ukraine are once again playing a decisive role in supplying the export market behind the USA, after they were virtually sold out in November last fall 2012.
