EU COM estimates higher EU harvest for 2024 - more barley, less wheat
In its monthly June edition, the EU Commission estimates the total EU grain harvest at around 275 million tons (previous year: 270 million tons). Domestic consumption is estimated to be slightly higher at 257 million tons. Almost 48 million tons are forecast for export, of which around 32 million tons are wheat. Imports, with a focus on maize (18 million tons), will fall to around 28 million tons. Ending stocks will fall marginally to 46.5 million tons.
The EU wheat harvest falls to around 128 million tons (previous year: 132.5 million tons) due to the reduced acreage caused by the weather; a slightly higher yield per hectare cannot fully compensate for this. Domestic consumption is estimated to remain largely unchanged at 111 million tons. For certain quality requirements, 8.1 million tons will be imported. Depending on the world market situation, EU-KOM expects exports to increase by 32.3 million tons. Compared to the previous year, final stocks will be a third smaller.
The barley harvest is estimated at 53.4 million tons. Increased acreage and higher yield expectations will contribute equally to this. Consumption of 41.1 million tons is forecast for the EU domestic market, meaning that exports to third countries are expected to amount to 10.3 million tons. Stocks are expected to increase to 3.7 million tons.
Maize production is forecast at 64.8 million tons due to higher cultivation areas and a slight increase in yields. Further net imports of around 12 million tons are required to cover the little-changed domestic consumption of 76.6 million tons.
Rye and triticale will achieve a largely unchanged total harvest volume of 18.5 million tons. Imports and exports are minimal, with just under half of rye going into the food sector.
After the disastrous previous year,oats again achieved a production volume of 6.7 million tons, but still fell short of multi-year averages.
