EU grain maize harvest 2013 with uncertain estimates (EU-MARS study)
In contrast to the 2013/14 global maize harvest of over 950 million tons and an increase of 90 million tons compared to the previous year, the estimates for the EU-28 are much more moderate.
The EU maize harvest in 2013 will generally be slightly better than the weak previous year with a result of 58 million tons. However, we are still in the dark about the actual amount. Estimates to date range from 63 to 68 million tons. Of this, the 4 major EU growing regions France, Romania, Italy and Hungary alone account for around 40 million tons.
The harvest area ultimately remaining for K. maize in Germany is likely to be rather smaller this year due to the average not too abundant stocks. The feed silos will be filled first, followed by the silos for the biogas plants, then the option for CCM and the rest will be grain maize. As things stand at present, the area required for feed and energy purposes is likely to be larger due to the below-average growth in stocks. A typically German way of looking at things. Depending on the density of processing and biogas plants, this ranking is very different in the individual regions.
In Spain, France, Germany, the Czech Republic and Austria, the EU's agro-meteorological institute (MARS) expects yields per hectare to be +-5% above the 5-year average. Poland, Romania and Bulgaria are expected to be more than 5% above the multi-year average after the weak previous years due to sufficient rainfall. In Italy, Slovakia, Hungary and Croatia, it was too dry, so yields are expected to be below average.
The domestic harvest of grain maize is decisive for the level of EU maize imports. Last year, 12 million tons were imported. Spain is one of the largest importers, with dimensions of around 2 million tons. Previous estimates for the current year are content with 7 million tons. Will that be enough?
