EU-KOM estimates higher EU grain harvest in 2025

End of June: EU COM raises 2025/26 harvest estimate

After 3 previous years of below-average harvests, this year's grain production is expected to return to the level of previous periods. The EU Commission estimates the result at 282.9 million tons, around 11% higher than in the weak previous year. Higher acreage and yields per hectare will contribute to this in equal measure.

However, domestic consumption is estimated to be only +1.2 % higher at 260 million tons. On the other hand, imports will be reduced by almost 19% compared to the previous year, while exports are expected to increase by 26.7%. This results in higher final stocks of +3.2% or 38.2 million tons.

EU wheat production is estimated at 136.2 million tons compared to the previous year's low of 118.8 million tons. Domestic consumption will increase only slightly to 112 million tons. On the other hand, exports are expected to rise from just under 24 million tons last year to 31 million tons this year. It is assumed that stocks will decrease.

Barley production is forecast at 53 million tons (previous year: 49 million tons), of which just under 43 million tons will be consumed in the EU domestic market. A slight export surplus is therefore expected.

The EU COM estimates that the maize harvest, which is not due until the autumn, will amount to 64.6 million tons (previous year 59.5 million tons). Net imports of around 13 million tons are therefore still required for the estimated domestic consumption of 78 million tons.

According to the latest estimate, the other types of grain (rye, triticale, oats, meslin) together reach around 28 million tons (previous year 26.6 million tons); the result sufficiently covers domestic consumption of 26.3 million tons.

Comparison of estimated results: