Apr-2025: EU COM updates EU grain supply 2025/26
In the latest monthly edition, the EU Commission (EU COM) publishes its latest assessment of the EU grain supply for the coming year. This is based on the acreages determined and the latest yield forecasts from the Agricultural Meteorological Institute (MARS).
The total harvest is expected to be 10% higher than in the previous year at around 280.3 million tons. After 3 years of poor harvests, a good average value would be achieved again. A larger area under cultivation and higher yield expectations will contribute to this.
Domestic consumption is expected to change only slightly to 257.3 million tons. Unchanged feed use accounts for 61% of this.
Exports are expected to increase to 45.4 million tons (previous year: 37.1 million tons). Imports will fall by -18% to 25.5 million tons.
The supply balance shows a slight increase in final stocks from 35.8 million tons last year to just under 39 million tons this year. This should ensure an average supply situation again.
In the wheat sector, the harvestis expected to increase by 15 million tons to 134 million tons. The main reason for this is the larger area under cultivation, while yields per hectare are expected to be only slightly higher than in the previous year. Own consumption, with almost equal shares for feed and human consumption of 45 and 41 million tons respectively, is estimated to total 110 million tons. Around 5.4 million tons will be imported to cover the demand for quality wheat, while just under 31 million tons will be available for export. The EU-KOM assumes that EU stocks of EU wheat will tend to be reduced, but is crucially dependent on trade with third countries under future tariff conditions.
Corn production is estimated at 65 million tons, around 6 million tons higher than in the previous year. With a smaller area under cultivation, the higher expected yield per hectare is the decisive factor. However, domestic consumption of an estimated 76.6 million tons will still require imports of around 20 million tons, which seems realistic given the increased purchasing power of the € exchange rate.
The total barley harvest is estimated at 51.7 million tons, around 2 million tons higher than in the previous year. Domestic consumption is expected to reach 42 million tons, leaving around 10 million for export.
Rye harvests are estimated to increase to 7.3 million tons and triticale to 11 million tons more than in the previous year. In contrast, the result for oats is expected to be lower.
As things stand at present, the data points to an average harvest, but the decisive yield-forming grain filling phase is still to come. In addition to the weather risks , the disputes over US customs policy will be an additional risk factor for sales and price trends in the coming grain year.
