June 2025: FAO updates world grain supply estimate 2025-26
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has updated the world grain supply 2025-26 in its latest June 2025 edition. The recording and evaluation methods differ from other institutes and are therefore not directly comparable. What is decisive, however, is the direction of development and the rates of change compared to previous estimates using the same methodology.
Grain production (excluding rice) is estimated at 2,356 million tons. In the previous year, the quantity was around 2305 million tons. The FAO estimates consumption (excluding rice) at 2,349 million tons (previous year: 2,348 million tons). The balance shows an increase in absolute stocks, but the supply figure continues to fall to 29.8% of final stocks to consumption. A fundamental improvement is not to be expected.
The FAO estimates the global wheat harvest at 800 million tons. In the estimate at the beginning of May 2025, the result was only 793 million tons. In the previous year, 798 million tons were recorded. Consumption will increase from 795 million tons to 805 million tons in the coming grain year. The balance sheet shows declining stocks at a global level; this is particularly evident in the 8 leading exporting countries.
Other cereals, with a focus on maize, are forecast at 1,560 million tons. In the previous year, the quantity was 1,508 million tons. The FAO estimates global consumption at 1,544 million tons. The supply situation will therefore tend to improve in this case. The high US maize harvest is a decisive factor.
Development comparison of estimated results
| In million tons |
FAO 06.06.25 |
IGC 22.05.25 | USDA 12.05.25 |
IGC 17.04. 25 |
FAO 04.05.25 |
| Cereal production (excl. rice) | 2.356 | 2.375 | 2.373 | 2.358 | --- |
| Grain consumption (excl. rice) | 2.349 | 2.372 | 2.413 | 2.375 | --- |
| Wheat harvest | 800 | 806 | 806 | 808 | 793 |
| Corn harvest | 1.270 | 1.277 | 1.274 | 1.265 | 1.230 |
| Supply figure in % | -- | 24,6 % | 24,4 % | 25,5 % | --- |
Taking into account different survey and evaluation methods, the institutions' results are comparatively close to each other in terms of estimation errors.
The growing rice market is largely balanced with a production of 551 million tons and a consumption of 549 million tons.
Conclusion: The estimation results continue to provide indications of a persistently tight supply situation, which is particularly pronounced in the case of wheat. Despite short-term fluctuations, forward prices on the exchanges remainat a comparatively high level on average.
