Market data analysis & forecasts - 02.01.2026
Overview:
This report summarizes current developments on the fertilizer markets in Germany, the EU and the US. In addition, comparative signals from the Black Sea region (Russia/Ukraine) are taken into account insofar as they are relevant for trade flows and pricing in the EU. The following are reported on: ammonia, urea (prill/granulate), UAN, ammonium nitrate, ammonium sulphate, MAP/DAP, potash (potash) and sulphur.
1) AMMONIA & NITROGEN FERTILIZER (ammonia, urea, UAN, ammonium nitrate, ammonium sulphate)
Market development / Current trends
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Nitrogen fertilizers: Prices in the nitrogen segment are showing a firmer trend, particularly in Europe. This is being driven by rising raw material prices, logistical bottlenecks and seasonal demand effects.
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Ammonia as a basic raw material is more expensive, which is supporting production costs for all nitrogen-based products.
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Urea (urea): Globally, a buoyant market with active tenders is reported (e.g. multiple bids in international urea tenders), indicating solid bid activity.
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UAN & ammonium nitrate/ammonium sulphate prices remain stable, with a slight upward trend in Europe.
Trend:
🔺 Stable to slightly rising in Germany/EU/USA
2-4 week outlook / forecast
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Meaningful demand from agriculture and consolidated transportation/logistics situation should keep prices sideways to moderately firmer.
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In Europe, the CBAM effect (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) could provide additional price support.
Bullish
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Increasing ammonia costs create cost floors.
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Active global urea tenders signal demand.
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CBAM uncertainty in the EU may support prices in the short term.
Bearish
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Previous price corrections on a global basis show that upward price pressure remains limited.
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No significant production freeze that would trigger a severe shortage.
2) PHOSPHATE FERTILIZER (MAP / DAP)
Market development / Current trends
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MAP/DAP prices remain robust, with slight upward movements in some regional indications.
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Global phosphate prices moved up in 2025, but remain stable to slightly down week-on-week in recent weeks.
Trend:
➡️ Sideways to slightly weaker
2-4 week outlook / forecast
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In Europe, prices are expected to remain stable to moderately soft sideways, as seasonal demand (winter/spring planning) has not yet taken full effect.
Bullish
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Seasonal ordering programs and global demand may put upward pressure on prices.
Bearish
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Slight downward trend in global phosphate prices.
3) KALI / POTASH (potash fertilizer)
Market development / current trends
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Potash prices have closed somewhat from previous highs , but have established themselves at a high level.
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High base prices are moderating further increases, but the fundamental shortage resulting from geopolitical restrictions (e.g. Russia/Belarus-related trade sanctions) is supporting a structurally firm price environment.
Trend:
➡️ Stable to slightly firm
2-4 week outlook / forecast
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Prices are expected to remain largely stable, with slight upward momentum due to spring demand anticipation.
Bullish
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Export capacity constraints from key base producers.
Bearish
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Limited short-term demand in winter could create downward pressure.
4) SULPHUR / SULPHUR
Market development / current trends
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Sulphur prices have risen over the course of the year, which has an impact on other fertilizers with sulphur components (e.g. ammonium sulphate).
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Rising prices are linked to production and logistics costs, not least for energy-intensive industries.
Trend:
🔼 Rising
2-4 week outlook / forecast
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Solid excess demand in the sulphur market may continue to support prices in the coming weeks.
Bullish
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Tighter inventories and demand in the chemical sector.
Bearish
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No significant downside risks discernible in the near term.
Summary - overall market
| Product group | Trend (current) | 2-4 week outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Nitrogen fertilizers (ammonia/urea/UAN) | Stable to slightly rising | Stable to moderately firmer |
| Phosphates (MAP/DAP) | Sideways to slightly weaker | Sideways/slightly softer |
| Potash | Stable to slightly firm | Stable |
| Sulphur | Rising | Stable to rising |
Summary / Conclusion
The weekly fertilizer market is robust to stable in early January 2026 with some upward trends, especially for nitrogen products and sulphur. Phosphates show slight soft trends, while potash (Potash) and Black Sea-related trade restrictions continue to provide a solid price foundation.
Bullish (positive factors):
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High ammonia and input costs
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Global tendering and demand stimuli, especially urea
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Structural price effects due to EU CBAM
Bearish (negative factors):
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Global inventories not extremely tight
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Seasonally normally calmer demand environment in winter
