1. regulatory environment & political signals
CBAM remains the dominant market factor (as at week 6)
As in week 5, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) remains the central variable for pricing and market dynamics. It has been fully effective since January 1, 2026.
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Several EU member states are now openly discussing a temporary suspension of the CBAM obligation for fertilizers after initial weeks showed that import costs are increasing noticeably.
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The EU Commission continues to refer to the "CBAM emergency brake" (Article 27a), which allows a suspension if there is a risk of significant market disruption.
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Agricultural associations in France, Italy and Eastern Europe are increasing the pressure: they argue that CBAM will generate additional inflation in the agricultural input chain during the start-up phase.
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On the industry side, on the other hand, there are warnings that exemptions could weaken the competitiveness of European producers.
📍 Market signal week 6:
Regulatory uncertainty remains high. Traders continue to delay individual spot purchases and monitor the political situation.
2. price level & development signals
Price trends in week 6 (Europe)
Fertilizer prices remain high but stable this week:
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high, but stable,
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without major upward or downward jumps,
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with slight downward pressure due to normalizing gas prices.
Nitrogen (Urea, AN/KAS):
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The expected price boost from CBAM continues to fail to materialize.
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Traders report slightly declining prices as stocks from 2025 are still well filled.
Phosphates (DAP/MAP):
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More stable than nitrogen fertilizers.
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Occasional slight declines as wholesalers show restraint.
Potash (MOP/KCl):
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Continued quiet market.
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No significant price movement in week 6.
📌 O verall signal week 6:
Price levels remain above average, but short-term volatility remains low.
3. supply & demand dynamics
Supply situation week 6
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Europe continues to source relevant volumes via imports - despite CBAM costs.
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Import flows show a slight shift: more goods from North Africa, less spot volume from Eastern European sources.
Demand
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Seasonal demand in February rather low to moderate.
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Many farmers and traders are acting cautiously and waiting for
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the first monthly CBAM settlement values,
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possible EU clarifications on transitional rules,
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further price indications from March/April.
Sentiment:
Caution and restraint dominate. Demand remains subdued, supply sufficient.
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4. bullish & bearish signals
| Category | Signal | Tendency |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish (price-driving) | CBAM costs remain real, albeit lower than expected | ↑ Stabilized at a high level |
| Import tariffs on Russian/Belarusian goods remain in place | ↑ | |
| Energy prices could rise again at any time | ↑ | |
| Bearish (price-dampening) | Inventories from 2025 very high | ↓ |
| Seasonally low demand in February | ↓ | |
| Political discussion about CBAM suspensions | ↓ |
5. market interpretation for week 6 2026
Conclusion Price level
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Still high, but calm.
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No sharp price swings upwards - CBAM is priced into the market.
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Gas price easing has a dampening effect.
Regulation
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CBAM is the dominant topic - politically sensitive, economically powerful.
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The market is waiting to see whether the first exemption rules for fertilizers will take effect.
Trade & demand
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Traders are holding back.
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Farmers are monitoring delivery values before ordering larger quantities.
