Regulatory environment & EU market signals

CBAM: Market gets used to new regulations - uncertainty remains

• The full application of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) continues to have a structural price-dampening effect through restrained import volumes, albeit without an acute price surge.

• The EU Commission is signaling that the first CBAM adjustments or clarifications are possible in March/April.

• Traders and fertilizer blenders report that reporting regulations and CO₂ factors continue to be an administrative burden, which is delaying spot transactions.

Price level - Europe + Germany

A) Nitrogen fertilizers (urea, KAS, AHL)

EU-wide market picture

• Urea: still slightly weaker, globally falling export prices exert additional pressure. Noticeable restraint, individual dealers grant small discounts to stimulate sales.

• KAS/CAN: stable to slightly declining, as stocks are well filled. Retailers report declines in the lower single-digit range.

• AHL: stable situation, hardly any price movement. Stable prices, hardly any trading activity.

B) Phosphates (DAP/MAP)

EU market data

• Phosphate prices remain high, but free of upward pressure.

• International demand lean → no price surge.

• Traders report almost identical price levels as in week 9.

• Demand in Germany remains subdued.

• Mixing plants: purchasing remains "expensive and reluctant to negotiate".

• No bottlenecks, but strategically low order quantities.

C) Potash (MOP/KCl)

EU trend

• Stable sideways movement, unchanged price bands.

• Traders confirm: "MOP unchanged", demand restrained.

• Potash is reliably and sufficiently available for all mixed fertilizer formulations.

• No price risk signals.

Supply & demand development

Supply - harmonized picture

• Good inventories from Q4/2025 dampen possible price movements.

• Import volumes normalize slightly compared to February, but spot transactions remain hesitant

• Blending plants report no procurement problems for N, P or K components.

Demand - no spring revival so far

• Farmers mainly order "on sight".

• Weather conditions (cool, sometimes damp) in large parts of Western Europe delay the start of application.

• Traders report: "Many are waiting for the first March price lists."

• Mixing plants: "Only basic orders are running; larger mixes more likely from week 11/12."

4. bullish & bearish factors

5. summary - status 05.03.2026

Nitrogen

• Weakness continues (falling slightly).

• Traders and blenders do not yet see a spring recovery

Phosphates

• Expensive but stable - hardly any movement.

• A pure plateau market.

Potash

• Unchanged, stable and predictable.

Integrated overall view

• The European fertilizer complex continues to show calm at a high level, but without triggers for price increases.

• The biggest unknown remains: When will spring demand really start?

• As soon as the weather picks up, nitrogen products will be the first to react.